You make a valid point and it’s possible that could be what the State Department has in mind — if it is, they’re being very poorly advised. The first and main point is that Chia is playing this card well. Chinese businesses in Afghanistan have remained open, the Chinese embassy there is open and China is sending a lot of food and other supplies, a 500 ton train left Urumqi just a few days ago, this was after the first 1000 tons in November, another in December and there will be another in two weeks. There are also tboth trade and educational delegations have been to or are still in Afghanistan to discuss cooperation. China will help them to advance and grow their economy rather than what they’ve seen in the past where most of the infrastructure built was built to service foreign forces needs. So, the Afghans are seeing China as a good neighbour.
Secondly, the route to the border, which is very narrow, is almost impassable in winter, it’s heavily secured and since it’s only 76 kilometres long, it’s relatively easy to secure against incursion.
If extremists already have a problem with China, then I can see them remaining angry and aggressive towards China, and potentially Chinese people there but it’s more likely they will direct any anger they have against the people who put them into this position, rather than the people helping them out of it. However, if they don’t already have ill feeling towards China and there are no NED or NGO’s operating in the region from the USA/UK then there’s no reason for them to direct their anger or extremism against China. Without the NED/CIA operating inside a coutry’s borders, there is prbably little or no danger of anyone becoming radicalised against China, they are more likely to realise why they are in the position they are in and direct their extremism towards the people who caused that. China didn’t invade, China hasn’t killed a single Afghan, China didn’t murder the families of innocent locals to suit their needs and China hasn’t renditioned a single Afghan to a site from which they may never return. Afghans have every right to feel anger but not against the Chinese.
NED sows seeds of radicalism and throws money and equipment around to facilitate its growth but I very much doubt any US/CIA assets are active at the moment, they will need to keep their heads very low. Radicalism and extremism very much have the possibility of growth under the circumstances of hunger and poverty; but the fertiliser is missing.
Finally, the border region inside of China is a point that has already seen troubles, the police, security and military presence there is already about the strongest in China.
Given all these factors, I very much doubt there will be any extremists seeing China as their target and, if they do, they’re going to need to find other ways to get into it and need to be very well organised and equipped in order to create trouble if they do.
