What the H is Pelosi doing and what will the consequences be?
Usually, I’ll talk about current events and give the reasons why I think China is misunderstood, today’s article is different because it’s about a news event and one which has the most serious ramifications in modern history.
Today’s date is 3rd August 2022 and last night about 10:40pm the highest-ranking Democratic politician under the President arrived in Taiwan. She’s on a visit that is almost unprecedented, it has happened before and, while it created a stir then, it wasn’t as serious as this time.
What makes it so serious this time?
Let’s get the One Country issue out of the way:
First of all, this isn’t about the situation in Taiwan, the UN recognises it, the US says it recognises it, the Chinese Constitutions of both the People’s republic of China and the Republic of China also recognise that Taiwan is a part of China. So, although there are many people who say there’s a difference, they can’t argue that if Taiwan and the Mainland both recognise that they’re parts of the same country then, no matter what your opinion, your thoughts, your desires may be, they are part of the same country so this matter is an internal affair to be handled by the people of China.
A military plane landing in part of China is a serious matter — it’s a lot more serious when that plane is carrying the second in line to the presidency and just a few days after the president of the US told the President of China that nothing has changed in US policy: there is only one China.
It gets even more serious when we learn that Pelosi was not invited — she’s forced herself upon the people of Taiwan and they don’t want her there. The people of China, on both sides of the Strait, are, quite rightfully, very angry.
People in Taiwan are demonstrating and they have Chinese signs written on Chinese paper outside the airport and outside the hotel where Pelosi is resting.
On the other hand, there are a few supporters of the US in Taiwan, there’s a lot of money going one way and another through trade so, of course, there are some people who are ok with this escalation. However, where I see supporters I see English signs, not Chinese signs, I see Ukraine facemasks, not Chinese or even medical facemasks and what I think when I see this is that these aren’t Chinese patriots, they aren’t even Taiwanese patriots, if there is such a thing.
These are people organised by outside influences — where else would they get Ukraine face masks? Why else would they have already printed signs in English? It doesn’t take a genius to understand that these people are being organised and supplied and their organisers are not from Taiwan. I’ll leave it to you to figure that out!
During the day today I’ve been scouring the news looking for snippets of information about how this will end and, let’s be honest, everything and anything I might suggest is pure speculation. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs in China has released a statement, they did that at 11pm last night condemning the action as a breach of an agreement that has stood the test of time. Explaining that Americans coming into China against the wishes of the Chinese people are not welcome here. The statement didn’t describe what action will be taken and this is very interesting.
By the time this gets to air, it’s quite likely that the situation will have changed, Pelosi’s visit was on again and off again: will she come, or won’t she? And then she did.
Within minutes Chinese anger was all over social media — those people who say Chinese can’t criticise their government were not on social media last night seeing what ordinary Chinese people were saying.
The messages I’ve heard are very mixed, some people want China to talk, some want action and some are just angry but don’t know what steps to take next.
Some comments on international social media indicate that some people, both inside and outside of China believe that China has shown weakness. The truth is, in my opinion, China has shown strength. It takes a great deal of discipline not to throw a punch when someone is squaring off against you and China showed it has discipline.
There will be consequences, I think those consequences will be hard and they will hurt.
During the day today I’ve asked over 50 people for their opinion on what China should do. About 30% say they should go to war. Admittedly not a scientific or academic study but there’s definitely a feeling that this act was an act of war against China. About 40% said China should talk, but when they said that others joined the conversation and told me China has talked enough, they’ve been talking and telling the truth for many years but people still believe bad things about China so they need to act — some of them want a war, many of the rest of them want strong, hard economic sanctions.
Here’s my opinion, for what it’s worth: I have kept a low profile on this topic because, to be honest, I didn’t think Pelosi would be allowed to go through with it but, noticeable by his absence — allegedly with a second bout of Covid, Biden has done and said nothing. I believe he’s been sidelined. It’s quite possible that he’s no longer fit to stand in front of a press gallery and answer the tough questions needed at this time of crisis — and crisis is exactly what it is, although many in the USA don’t realise that yet.
I predicted that China would not fire a shot, I agreed with several other people who held that opinion. I disagree that a war is necessary. I live in Guangdong, it’s a manufacturing hub, if a war starts, we’re going to be targets and many people will die, I’m not ready for that yet and neither are most of my friends
The USA are the only country ever to have dropped a nuclear bomb on a civilian population and they have not signed up to the “No First Strike” policy. China has a position of strength and would, I think, easily win a local war over a fleet of ships in and around Chinese waters. China has the weaponry in rockets and missiles do cause a great deal of damage to a fleet that is a very long way from home — which the US and allied fleet are.
But America has nukes, and has proven it will use them. The US has dehumanised Chinese people and desensitising their own citizens through several years of “Yellow Peril” stories. Untrue genocide and forced labour allegations in Xinjiang; unwarranted allegations of restrictions of free press and free speech in HK; unfair blame for a pandemic they couldn’t handle and even allegations of aggression against Taiwan when China builds up a military capable of defending itself against fleets of foreign vehicles parked off the Chinese coast. It makes me wonder if all of those were pre-cursors to lead to this point
If China attacked the US fleet, or shot Pelosi’s plane down, or showed any form of assertive military action, the USA, would cry havoc and release the dogs of war. They’ve manufactured consent for war already and dropping a nuclear bomb in the past wasn’t such a difficult thing for them to do and they are likely to do it again.
No, war is not the answer here, discipline is. The consequences are just too catastrophic for both sides to think about.
Despite the many people on Twitter and other social media saying China has shown weakness. This was a demonstration of great strength, great character and incredible discipline.
My opinion is pure speculation but, for what it’s worth here’s what I think China might do, or, perhaps I should say, this is my advice to China about what I think China should do
Economic sanctions are important but first of all, Nicholas Burns, the US Ambassador needs to be sent home — he is anti-China and anti-cooperation, if what he puts on social media is to be believed. He is not the person to negotiate out of this mess — he doesn’t have the respect of the Chinese people.
Every trading or merchant ship that is on the way to the USA that is Chinese or under Chinese command should be called back to China. This will mean the shops and factories of America will all but close down. This will affect the already high unemployment, as well as the already high inflation, which will soar
There will be a great deal of discontent the high crime will increase, incarceration rates can’t go much higher, the prisons are full and America is experiencing increasing poverty as well as homelessness and rising debt. They also have a Covid crisis that is still out of control.
The people of America will do to their government what the US has been trying to do in Iran, Venezuela, previously in China and for over 70 years in Cuba — it will ignite uncontrollable civil disobedience.
The USA has the world’s highest number of prescription drug addicts, it has one of the world’s highest numbers of illicit drug and substance addicts and it has the world’s largest collection of privately owned guns.
Most of America’s prescription drugs are made in China and if they don’t get to the pharmacies of America every few days, then there will be problems — huge problems. Something no one wants to see is a drug addict with a gun who cannot get his/her medication.
This is how China can show its strength, not by fighting but by exposing the weakness of its enemies.
China’s Communist Party prides itself on listening to the people and acting in the people’s best interests. The people are angry and the CPC knows this. We will see some decisions soon and they will be decisive. Of that I’m sure