The Balloon Story
….or balloon lives matter
You can see a video on this story here: https://youtu.be/LZG9-R3HD2c
China admitted there was a weather balloon which had strayed off course due to unexpected winds. This is not an uncommon occurrence.
USA defined it as a hostile attempt to gather information from their military bases over which the balloon was drifting and have called it a surveillance balloon.
There are many reasons why this is not a rational assumption. China currently has enough satellites in low earth orbit, and a space station from which it could gather information if it really wanted to: Balloons are not precise, it’s impossible to guide them accurately to sites you want to see; the size and colour of the balloon make this laughable, if China were to put “secret” information or intelligence gathering equipment up there, they surely wouldn’t make it the size of three London buses and white in colour to contrast clearly against a beautiful blue sky.
My opinion is that the entire story is a distraction.
As a result of this incident, Blinken cancelled a planned trip to Beijing. There is a side story here that he was never actually invited and wouldn’t be welcome and there is no doubt in China that he was expected so, putting aside the issues with diplomatic norms, he was coming to China and now he has delayed that trip.
When he met with Chinese diplomats in Anchorage in March 2021, he was firmly told his view of the world was different to China’s. Western media were present and reported that his meeting was anything but a success. Some described Chinese diplomats as “wolf warriors” or aggressive but the world saw a diplomatic failure and disappointing performance by Secretary of State Blinken.
It is clear that USA are ramping up aggression in both trade and military against China. McCarthy has announced he will come to Taiwan, Secretary of Defence Austin was in the Philippines and announced there would be four new bases built to station US troops in the “island chains of defence”, what he couldn’t announce, because the Philippines wouldn’t allow it, was that Clarke Air Force Base would recommence operations and this means they don’t have an “oven ready solution” for their troops
Victoria Nuland is in India and has visited China’s neighbours Nepal and China’s trade partner Sri Lanka; announcements aren’t usually made where Nuland travels anywhere but she was involved in Ukraine shortly before their 2014 coup and was famously caught on a recording discussing who should be the next president there. Ensuring that the incumbent would be favourable to US policy. Her job is not diplomacy, she is clearly not in China’s region, speaking to China’s neighbours about anything positive related to China.
And finally, Jens Stoltenberg of NATO is in Japan which is a country he is supporting to build their “defence” capabilities and to increase the percentage of GDP that they spend on defence.
While this is going on, Biden is increasing sanctions against Chinese companies and the entire Congress is working on methods to slow China’s growth — so much so that they have seemingly forgotten how to manage their own country!
There is no doubt in my mind that Blinken knew what to expect on his arrival in China. He would have been met with a firm but diplomatically worded welcome which would place him in a worse position than the Anchorage meeting. He is not a high-level diplomat; he does not speak Chinese and he would not understand the nuances of much of the information that he would be given.
Almost certainly his responses would have been made in haste and perhaps regretted later. More importantly, he would have “lost face” as the US and Chinese media would have seen this. There is no question in my mind that the US, particularly Republican leaning media such as Fox News, would be as happy to report his failure as much as they would be happy to report China’s reasonable response to a series of these increased steps towards hostility as “perceived aggression”.
USA do not want to be in a war with China, but clearly, they would be happy to force China into a war with their proxies, Japan isn’t ready, hence the NATO visit, Australia is unready, they are still awaiting delivery of submarines, missile and extensions to the air force base, where B52 bombers will be stationed as well as a US Marine presence in Darwin which they talk of increasing. Both India and the Philippines have expressed reluctance to side with the US, India against Russia and Philippines against China.
So, in my opinion, Blinken felt the time is not right to be faced with China’s restrained anger and disappointment as well as the discomfort of being told he wasn’t welcome and have his motives called into question. The US is good at being a bully but they’re not good at handling being stood up to by a powerful adversary. It’s possible Blinken, with his lack of proper diplomatic experience could overreact and might even have caused an escalation to the point of no return by USA.
The balloon gave him a much-needed distraction.
As a follow up — the balloon was shot down over the Atlantic: why? If it ever was a threat, it was clearly no longer a threat, this is the equivalent of shooting a suspect in the back as he is leaving the scene and, depending on the location, might have been an illegal act due to the fact that the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, UNCLOS has regulations as to what are international waters air dpace. One other point is that technically, the balloon, if it was at 85,000 feet, as reported did not enter US restricted airspace at any time during its flyover of the USA as that space stops about 60,000 feet above sea level.
So, in order to prove they can do it, US did do it. But they did it in a place where the equipment can’t be salvaged and investigated, that might be too embarrassing and they did it in a place where it was no longer necessary or perhaps even legal to do so. This is the USA we’ve come to know
