I’m responding to a new subscriber today, @brianeggar who found me through a reply I’d posted on the Duran YouTube channel, I’d suggest, if you don’t know the Duran, you should take a look, they are remarkably well-informed and keep things very simple for people like me who have limited geopolitical experience.
Brian asked two questions which were both geopolitical in content but which I felt I was able to answer. One related to the coming election in Taiwan, the other related to the border disputes with India. They were both really good questions
I’m going to answer in two different videos as one single video would be too long. So, don’t forget to like, share and, if you haven’t done so, subscribe, so you get to see both videos as they’ll probably be launched a day or two apart.
So, in response to these questions, I relied mostly on opinion or experience rather than research so, you might think I’m wrong and you may be right, these are just my opinions and only time will tell if they are correct, so please, if you do disagree, please feel free to let me know but don’t expect a debate on it, we’re always going to find people who disagree on what might, could or should happen in geopolitics and I respect your opinions enough not to argue over them.
Take them for what they are, musings over what might happen in the future, rather than researched responses to something that has happened in the past.
Here we go: Firstly Taiwan: if the recent mid-term elections are anything to go by, it will most likely be the KMT who win the election. I know a few Taiwanese residents here in Zhongshan and they all seems to dislike and distrust Tsai, the current “president” but all of them would prefer the status quo.
Let’s get one thing out of the way, the elephant in the room if you like; China will never invade Taiwan. Apart from the obvious pedantic, or semantic response, it can’t invade its own country there are other factors at play. The USA and others have often said that Taiwan could, might or even will invade but China has never said anything of the sort. China has only ever said it would defend its land and its people from any outsiders who attempt to separate any part of China.
Again, there will be people who disagree with this, my only comment is to ask them to find me a place where any Chinese person in any official capacity has ever said this. They can’t, but people keep sending me media reports and video clips of US admirals or Generals saying it is a plan. Thy don’t know what China is thinking, they can’t even read what China is saying correctly!
Independence isn’t going to be asked for by anyone in Taiwan, at least not by anyone who has a brain because, even if it didn’t start a war, it would definitely ruin the economy. Most likely though, any attempt at independence will resume the Civil War and mean a bloodbath — especially if the US do what they’ve done in Europe and encourage other neighbours to join a proxy war so that they can benefit financially from without loss of American lives (except for perhaps a few mercenaries who will undoubtedly enlist).
During the election campaign, leading up to 2024, there will, I’m certain, be influence and some degree of interference from both sides. China will want KMT to win and will support it wholeheartedly and they will look to the older generation who are less swayed by US influence to get out and vote. The Younger generation, probably are less interested in voting, but will probably be incentivised financially to get out and vote in the same way that HK young people were, and still are financially incentivised by NED.
One comment I’d like to make about this is that if the US does get involved, this is not influence, this is foreign interference. That’s something they shout very loud about when they experience it in their own country but something it’s well-known they will do to others. China, on the other hand, cannot be accused of foreign interference since most of the world recognises Taiwan as part of One China. I know a lot of people will argue that point, but I doubt many of them will watch this video.
If KMT win, I think they will likely move towards a more open relationship with China but not necessarily a less open one with the USA. That would be foolish. They are likely to ask USA to remove any military presence on the island though and that will, I’m certain, cause the USA to become petulant and threatening.
No party in Taiwan is likely to attempt a referendum. Neither USA or China will encourage a referendum because for both the most likely outcome would be status quo rather than either of the other options; status quo would mean the USA loses its leverage and for China it means no hope of reunification for many years.
What I think is most likely will be some kind of reunification with a new system — such as, but not the same as Macau and HK have. I’m fairly certain Taiwan can pretty much ask for anything it wants except independence and its own National Security Laws. Under China’s leadership, it might ask for 100 years or even in perpetuity for the two systems and it might get them.
It is for this reason that China (despite Western media and politicians lies) has never interfered in HK, even during the 2019 protests, China was seen to remain outside offering help but never went in because they weren’t invited. They complied 100% with the Joint Declaration made by Margaret Thatcher and Deng Xiao Ping, they’ve also complied with HK’s Basic Law. Taiwan’s governors know this even if media and a few colonialist politicians in the UK are shouting the opposite.
So, from that perspective that’s what I think is going to happen to Taiwan
Watch a video of this article here: https://youtu.be/LsM6brVUVtc