Some Thoughts on the Belt and Road Initiative

China has proven it prefers mutually beneficial cooperation and this is what the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is all about. A new Trans-African Highway is linking Dakar with Djibouti, 8,700 kilometres away. A new Parliament building in Zimbabwe, ports and railways throughout Asia, the Middle East and South America. Power plants, schools, hospitals, mines, communications links and IT systems are already built; This infrastructure is now improving lives, increasing income, providing better education health outcomes and creating optimism.

But, when Covid-19 made debt repayments more difficult, China did the unexpected and forgave the debts of 17 African countries to the tune $4.3bn. While Western politicians and media shout about “debt traps” they fail to report when China forgives debts, or, if they do, they do so unironically and in a classic shot to their own foot by attempting to belittle China’s good deed by pointing out the debts were interest free in the first place. Interest free debts, think about that?

During his first 100 days President Biden announced a Build Back Better (BBB) program which would stimulate the economy and help America recover from decline by spending up to $6tn domestically, what passed the House of Representatives a year later was a watered down version worth $1.85tn which still hasn’t been passed in the Senate; with one Senator in Biden’s own party blocking it.

In June last year, in order to counter China’s influence through its BRI, President Biden announced there would be a new G7 partnership called Build Back Better World (B3W). A rallying around of the “world’s democracies to deliver for OUR people and meet the world’s biggest challenges”. When we see “our people” let’s remember that the G7 represents 50% of the world’s GDP but only 10% of its people.

The stated goals of B3W was to build infrastructure and support for: Climate; Health and Health Security; Digital Technology; Gender equity and equality. So far, B3W has achieved nothing except headlines. Before it can, some issues need to be addressed: who’s paying? How will it mediate between the UK, EU, and other members like Japan; most importantly, who should be the recipients?

Given the lack of ability to help their own constituents through BBB, it’s highly unlikely that these will be within the life of Biden’s Administration.

What Washington and the G7 probably didn’t expect was that China would agree with them. China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, in February this year explained China likes the idea and would be willing to coordinate and work with the US, incorporate B3W into BRI to build a “family of openness, inclusiveness, innovation, growth, connectivity and win-win cooperation”.

If history is any guide the best way to influence is through action, not threats or promises. Most poorer nations in the world have a history of being invaded, religiously converted, colonised and exploited. Now they’re seeing benefits of China’s influence, they’re experiencing a partner that shares not takes, that doesn’t interfere with culture or bring religion; China doesn’t move in, take land and leave bibles or trinkets.

The developing world has heard promises before, it’s seen the results of hundreds of years of colonisation and western expansion. It’s going to take more than the dangle of an unconfirmed $40 trillion dollar promise from their old masters to change their minds, especially when BRI is already bringing changes and tangible benefits.