Yes, the UK and USA do have Something to Fear

I recently read a report in Britain’s Daily Telegraph which stated that Britain doesn’t need to worry (in fact it says “ doesn’t need to quake”, meaning tremble in fear) about the 53 countries that support China because they only make up 4% of the world’s GDP.

Apart from the obvious arrogance of a statement which puts the value of a country’s wealth above the value of its opinion there are actually VERY good reasons why Britain might consider this to be something to be fearful of and they might want to review their perspective in light of the way China has recently, and continues to develop.

The article’s writer states that “China has peaked”, suggesting only one thing: this writer hasn’t been to China and hasn’t seen the infrastructure, the wealth management and opportunities that China has brought to its own society. One only needs to look at the development currently going on and the plans to further this development to know that China is only just beginning.

Whilst I do have post grad qualifications, unlike the usual “China-watchers”, I don’t have an MBA or a PhD, I don’t understand much about world economics and I am completely ignorant of philosophies such as Marxism, Leninism, Maoism, capitalism and even communism — I don’t need an “ism” to see what, to me anyway, appears to be blindingly obvious.

Forty of those 53 countries have signed onto China’s One Belt One Road initiative. So, while the “free world” might scream “debt diplomacy” there’s another way to look at this that might take uninformed people by surprise.

First of all, I don’t for one moment think that the writer of the article really believes what he wrote. He’s an intelligent person and needs to ensure he keeps his well-paid position by following a line of thought coming from the politics of his publication’s owners, the Barclay Brothers, and fitting with what the world wants to believe. We’re seeing news reports all over the world critical of China because it seems to fit into a narrative that China is bad and the “West” is good. Good news about China seems to come from some very small independents and mostly from Chinese media, where it’s immediately dismissed as propaganda — bad news sells newspapers and fear propagated by the mainstream media is very good, bad news!

Looking at a list of the countries which have signed up to support China what obvious things stand out?

Antigua and Barbuda, Bahrain, Belarus, Burundi, Cambodia, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Comoros, Congo-Brazzaville, Cuba, Djibouti, Dominica, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Gabon, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Laos, Lebanon, Lesotho, Mauritania, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Nicaragua, Niger, North Korea, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Papua New Guinea, Saudi Arabia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Suriname, Syria, Tajikistan, Togo, UAE, Venezuela, Yemen, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

Some are former French colonies, some were British, some Spanish others are “enemies of the USA” part of the “Axis of Evil”, some are Muslim others are not, in fact it’s a wide range of differing countries with differing ideologies but all have one thing in common. They all have reason to fear a return to the way they have historically been treated. That is, apparently, except Saudi Arabia who, in theory, have benefited from the way the West has treated them — but in reality, they are a rich country, very rich, and had massive reserves of oil, much of which has already been drained off by British, Dutch, French and American companies to enrich themselves leaving Saudi with a myriad of problems that have never been resolved and are unlikely to be resolved since, all they got for the oil was a lot of cash, some jealous and angry neighbours and nothing else. When the oil runs out, they know they’ll be discarded like a used tissue.

When I look at this list I think back to my geography and history lessons at school, many of the names here evoke some feelings that bring words like: oppressed; colonial; war-torn; poor; devastated; to my mind.

It’s very hard not to look at these names and, with a British education system behind me, disdain many of them as being nothing to worry about. I was, after all brought up in a country that prided itself on “ruling the seas” and having an empire so big that “the sun never set on it”. However, with 15 years of living in China and views of what China has done, is doing, and has committed to continuing to do, I see an entirely different scenario; let me explain.

When China recently deferred the debt of 77 developing nations, the press simply ignored the news, or when it did report it, they reported that China has helped these countries in order to obtain support in upcoming UN resolutions: in other words; these countries only signed up to support China to get some relief on debt — if that were true, why aren’t all 77 countries signed up and supporting? And, has anyone given any thought as to how it is that a country such as China, believed by many to be the personification of evil, actually has outstanding loans and is kind enough to defer payments to so many poorer countries? This fact alone says a lot about the lack of truth in the inherent belief that China is evil or it isn’t a benevolent country.

One more interesting thing I noted: when we look at the Human Rights Council, to which this support was issued. The USA aren’t even on it. They pulled out of any involvement in the Human Rights Council in 2018 because it criticised them about the way they treated, and apparently still treat, refugees entering their southern borders. In the same way they pulled out of the World Health Organisation and the International Criminal Court. Each of these important international bodies has either criticised the USA or not given the USA what they felt they need in order for the USA to remain a member of them.

Getting back to the future, I want to remind the readers of a statement we probably all learnt when we were quite young: Charity begins at home. Indeed, it does. Without going into too many details, I’ve written about before in several articles (read more about charity here: https://medium.com/@jerry_grey2002/what-a-surprise-charity-in-china-is-big-bbc2b3fa5d21 and read about why Chinese people like their government here: https://medium.com/@jerry_grey2002/do-chinese-people-really-like-their-government-d4733d76bff8 ). China is very good at lifting people out of poverty, it has plenty of experience within its own borders and is also doing a lot more outside of the country in places that are currently mired in IMF and US debt,

China is helping to build infrastructure and working in partnership with the governments of poor countries to build their roads, their rail lines and their ports. Yes, in some cases, and everyone who believes in the “debt diplomacy” stories will immediately quote what happened in Sri Lanka when China built a port and then took over management rights of the port. But a deeper investigation and people will find that Sri Lanka was actually happy with the situation. Following years of civil war, Sri Lanka is in debt to the IMF and to other countries MUCH higher than to China (China holds $8bn of Sri Lanka’s total $64.9bn debt), but it is only China that helps them overcome their debt problems and work out a way that is beneficial to both countries to rebuild.

China has also sent billions of USD aid to impoverished countries to help with Covid19 related issues. The aid is in the form of medical teams, equipment, medicines and personal protective equipment and in some places, most recently, an entire hospital to Pakistan. It’s helping Kazakhstan through a very difficult time right now as it goes through a potentially new virus discovery process. China has also picked up all the missing funding from the USA, which conveniently forgot when it defunded the WHO that, according to the WHO’s own financial information, the USA was 12 months in arrears. So, when China helps these “friends in need” it’s hardly surprising that those friends are “friends indeed”. They aren’t getting much needed help from places like the USA or the UK who currently have too many problems of their own to handle.

Supply of PPE was a huge problem early in this pandemic, China needed more than most countries and ordered, paid for and took delivery of supplies from the world. The USA, on finding they needed supplies went around the world and monopolised, even pirated whatever supplies they could find — only then to go on and sell them from their federal stockpile to the states which needed them, at a profit. The USA has, furthermore, monopolised for the next three months, the world’s supply of one medicine which is believed to be useful for Covid19. In the same week that happened, China notified the world that they are getting closer to a vaccine which, as soon as it becomes available, will be offered to the rest of the world. We can see from actions like this that China is being friendly and outwardly looking towards its supporters and neighbours, while others are looking inward, hoping to manage their own problems. Hardly surprising then that some countries are more inclined to be friendly towards China.

At home, China’s goal is to build a moderately prosperous nation. What this means is that some will get rich, some will even get very rich, but eventually, none will be left in poverty, no one in China is homeless and no one in China will starve. Extrapolate this into the international arena. Poor countries that have been pillaged by colonial powers in the past are suddenly becoming independent of their former (and in some cases, current) colonial masters, they are developing, slowly but surely in a fair and equitable way. China wants to both help them and gain from them.

Make no mistake, China wants to grow and bring wealth back to China, but there isn’t a single case of China sending it’s military into another country in order to encourage, enforce or enslave that country into doing what China wants in order to gain that wealth. This is not neo-colonialism, this is mutual, and mutually beneficial, trade which, if managed well in the country doing business with China, will be the foundation of future wealth and building programs from which richer, stronger and more powerful nations will emerge.

Furthermore, when Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, the writer of the Telegraph article says Britain has nothing to fear, he forgets one fundamental point. 50 years ago, China was hardly a dent on the world’s GDP, it’s now number 2 on the rankings.

When I look at the list of countries supporting China, I see asset rich countries, for example Syria, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Papua New Guinea and others. I see countries that have been “developed” by colonial or industrialised methods which have historically benefited the countries providing the development much more than it benefited the countries being developed. Why is it then that these asset rich countries have such a low proportion of the world’s wealth? They’re busy paying dues to colonists, fighting wars with invaders and struggling under sanctions imposed by more powerful countries.

In my opinion, those days are over for many of these countries, they are rich in assets, rich in relationships with nations that can help to recover and grow from now, but they’re poor in infrastructure and development. Some are in a state of war, or at very least, a state of conflict in which the USA leads the world in its involvement.

A new world order is progressing, it’s in process as we speak, we are experiencing a time in history where the balance of power is shifting and China is leading this shift through a policy which doesn’t enrich an individual, one company or even one nation, it doesn’t entrap or enslave but helps to bring each of the partners into a place where they can aspire, as China does, to a moderately prosperous society in which some people might get rich, some will not, but, if managed well, none will be left behind and, the 4% of the world’s GDP that currently supports China, will become an ever increasing percentage, not through the addition of more countries, although that’s an inevitability, but through the growth of each of these countries supported, lead and financed, by China. Culminating, as I see it, in a financial and power shift over the next one to two generations.

When that happens, unless their arrogance and belligerence is brought into check and, unless they become part of the growing group of nations that want to work for common good, Britain and the USA will indeed have something to fear, something I don’t think they’ve even considered as yet.

The masters of the “free world” are looking down the barrel of something that would have been unthinkable as recently as a few years ago: irrelevance.

And, if I were a former master, I would fear irrelevance more than almost anything else.